Newport County are projected to face a tough fight against relegation in the 2026/27 League Two season according to a data-led forecast. The model anchors the Exiles in the bottom two, a position reflected in their current league standing of 20th with four points from five matches.
The Squawka projection blends market information with last season's results to create a strength score for each club. Market factors account for 60% of the score, while form based on 2025/26 points makes up the remaining 40%. Clubs relegated from League One receive an uplift in their form rating, though transfer spending is not considered a reliable measure. Squawka said: "This is a Squawka projection, not a certainty. Treat it as a data-led starting point for the season."
Newport County are given the longest odds in the model's assessment. This follows a 43-point campaign last season where they finished just three places above the relegation zone. Crawley Town join them in the projected bottom two, with Tranmere Rovers, Accrington Stanley and Cheltenham Town sitting just above the cut-off line. All three of those teams finished in the bottom five last term.
The early stages of the 2026/27 campaign have been challenging for Newport County. As of 08 September 2026, they sit 20th in the standings with four points, having won one, drawn one, and lost three of their opening five fixtures. Their recent form reads LLDLW. In those games, they have scored nine goals but conceded ten, resulting in a minus one goal difference. They are already eight points behind the early leaders, Bristol Rovers.
Salford City, who finished fourth with 81 points last season but lost in the play-offs, are the model's favourites to win the league this time. They have strengthened with the arrival of Macaulay Langstaff from Millwall. Chesterfield, who earned 79 points and reached the play-offs, are fourth-favourites. Newly relegated sides also feature prominently, with Exeter City receiving the strongest form uplift and Port Vale, who dropped from League One with 42 points, also highly rated.
The League Two season kicked off on Saturday 15th August with 24 clubs beginning the marathon campaign. Newport County's opening fixture was a home match against Rochdale. Other notable openers included Oldham Athletic versus Port Vale. Fans can look ahead to the next set of challenges on the club's fixtures schedule. The full squad available for those matches is listed on the squad page.
